can you belive Putin?
It is amazing that he repeats the conspiracy theory I heard before, but did not think any official would make such a suggestion. I guess anything is possible with the Bush Cheney crowd, but would be hard to imgine they would cause loss of life, property and liberity of Georgians in order to help McCain.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/world/europe/29putin.html?ref=world Not really sure how to do links but hope this works.
Sitting at a conference in Ghent, so excuse the brevity.
"Real" reason for Russian invasion
My friend Mr. Cheek is wagging his tongue again. He objects to my geopolitical explanation of the Russian invasion of Georgia.
"Come on", he says, "you always overcomplicate things. Geopolitics, phooeypolitics! This incursion is just a distraction from their real intentions. Did you not see that Russia was eighth place in the Olympic medals standing when they started this war?? That was a disgrace and something had to be done. If the athletes could not perform, the military could not stand idly by and watch the country be disgraced. So they drew from the lesson of US invasion of Granada nearly 25 years ago(pick the smallest, closest possible country)and achieved a quick, can I say 'shock and awe', victory. The proof of my theory is that since then they have risen rapidly in the standings, passing Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany and finally today have passed the Great Britain. Only the USA and China stand in the way to their achiving total victory. Now if only they could find another small, nearby country to invade. Hmmmm."
Ok, Mr. Cheek, forget it, they already invaded Lithuania in 1991, and the Lithuanians won without firing a shot. That was really the Georgians mistake. They followed the Bush-Cheney doctrine instead of Ghandi tactics.
More Russian antics
Arriving in Vilnius on Thursday, I saw lots of cars with Lithuanian flags in support of the basketball team, which sadly lost to Spain yesterday in a close contest with way too many LT turnovers that were not quite offset by a barrage of 3-pointers by Jaisaitis, who hit 5 of 10 trays, and others. I was lucky to see the whole game, which was not only on LTV but also on a Spanish channel TVG. But I digress. Also in evidence were cars with one LT and one Georgian flag or even two Georgian flags. I had lunch in one of the few Russian restaurants here and it was virtually empty. Was it a boycott?? During lunch a Lithuanian friend said that now Lithuanian truckers have been denied the usual allotment of Russian transit permits to transport goods to Russia. Ok, it is not as big a deal as cutting off oil flows to the refinery here, which as been going on for two years, but it is another way the Bear is tweaking what it considers little unfriendly neighbors.
One Lithuanian remarked that the little countries are suffering from the geopolitical contest between the USA and Russia. And this morning a Russian commentator had a theory that is probably widely believed in Russia, that the Georgians were acting as surrogates for the Bush Administration to create a foreign affairs crisis that would help McCain get elected. In this theory, the "October Surprise" came early. Ok, I am not much inclined toward conspiracy theories; but I have become cynical enough about the Bush-Cheney crowd to feel they are entirely capable of such an act. For Russian, who tend believe all kind of conspiracy theories of the West against them, this is quite understandable.
My VP is???
In a few hours we will be getting texts and emails from Obama announcing his pick for VP, the best kept secret in years. So I figured my prediction must be posted before then to be credible as a prognosis.
Ok, here goes. In this case there is no difference between who I would like him to pick and who I think he will pick, and it is Joe Biden. He was probably the most qualified to answer the 3AM call among all the presidential candidates D or R, so he would be a great VP too. He has been fully vetted by past campaigns, including attempts to accuse him of plagerism. He is the best "attack dog" among all the prospects. He is a little prone to talk too much, but is not the type that would tend to be insubordinate to the Pres, such as a Clinton might. Well, all the pundits try to hedge their bets too, so I also will give two dark horses who would also be very good. The first of these is John Kerry and the even darker dark horse is Congressman Edwards. Problem with him is that some informed voters may see "Edwards" on the ticket and mistake it for That Senator who.... I could even imagine the Republican attack machine trying to help people make that mistake. So there it is and just in time to beat Obama to the punch.
Are we "all Georgians"?
First I have to reveal that I was in Lithuania briefly at the time in 1991 when it was occupied by Russian (then Soviet) tanks and have personal friends who participated in the human barrier preventing these tanks from advancing on the TV tower, a barrier that was crushed by these tanks when they were ordered to advance in all disregard for those innocent people standing in the way. I have often visited the memorials and graves of those Lithuanians killed in this act of aggression and others by Russia that took place in this period when Lithuania was struggling for independence, an independence that was fully realized in August 1991. Despite the fact that Lithuania has since stabilized and prospered and joined the EU in May 2004, as have Latvia and Estonia who also broke with Russia in those tense times, Russia has continued to probe and test and sometimes bully these countries with economic and strategic threats.
In fact, Estonia was the first country that was victim of a cyperwar attack in May 2007, so even being a full-fledged member of the EU is no guarantee of being free of such bullying. And a cyberwar from Russian territory was a prelude to the military attack in Georgia last week. Moreover, Russia used some maintenance excuses two years go to cut off oil supply to Lithuania's refinery in what seemed like retaliation for the fact that Polish instead of Russian investors won the contest to own the refinery. Acting like any bully, it smacked of retaliation. Fortunately, Lithuania had the foresight years ago to build an oil terminal on the Batic coast, so they have supplies anyway though at a higher price.
Despite my knee-jerk reaction to support Georgians in their defense against Russian attacks and that of militias from the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, I feel that the US has to be smart as well as bold in its response to this crisis. A good lesson from those Baltic confrontations of the early 90s is that a large and even more dangerous force of the Soviet Union at that time was no match for nonviolent pressures for human and democratic rights of these occupied, captive countries. It was truly a conquest of people-power over a ruthless military machine, and the same can be said of the Russians standing up to their own tanks in the August 1991 attempted putsch or coup d'etat.
So how to be smart in the current crisis? First of all is to recognize that this has been a festering wound for years, and there is enough blame to go around for that happened last week. There is no defense for the harshness of the Russian response or for their incursion into Georgia and destruction of Georgian infrastructure, so one cannot compare other sins of omission and commission to that one. Georgia was like a foolish child who lashed out at a bully without thinking of the consequences. It was an excuse Russia was waiting for (or trap they baited) to launch the invasion of Georgian space. The US and EU have not given enough attention to this open wound that needed careful negotiation to prevent just such an explosion. Now it is hard to turn back the clock.
McCain has been entirely too aggressive in his response to this crisis while Obama has been more thoughtful and more in line with what I would like to see in a President. Speak softly and carry a big stick, Ted Roosevelt used to say, but McCain speaks harshly and has a very small stick. You would think he is already the President the way he has talked, but the country can only have one President at a time. It may also be worrisome to lots of voters as it is to me that McCain is all too eager to go to war. He was such an enthusiast on invading Iraq even before the Bush administration,and attack seems to be his first reaction to threats. He just learned the wrong lessons from Vietnam.
Unlike some of his contemporaries like Chuck Hagel or younger colleagues like Jim West and John Kerry, who served on the ground in Vietnam, McCain never was able to see the reality on the ground that it was an unwinnable war. I too was on the ground in Vietnam for more than 3 years, though not in the military, and it was so clear to anyone with open eyes that a foreign military force cannot win over support of a population in a foreign country. McCain thinks it was the failure to maintain support of the US population, when in fact it is the failure to gain support of the Vietnamese population. Russia learned this in Afghanistan and we are learning it again in Iraq.
But I digress. The main point is the only way out of these messes is talking to the opposition and finding the pressure points that influence them. In the case of Russia, pressure points may relate to the cushy lifestyle of the rich and famous who like their vacations in the USA and their financial relations with US markets and businesses. Putin will not last forever and he may lose power and influence if his actions start to worry the rich and famous Russians. It is not to say it can be quick or easy, but raving and making empty threats will not work. Threats that actually can be delivered, like economic and business access, the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, etc are the kinds of pressure points to think about.
I am off to Lithuania in two days, so I may have more to add from there. They have a better and more informed perspective then we have here in the USA.
Conversation with Pastor Rick
Ok, I admit I have been negligent in blogging since early this year, but I am getting fired up now with Pastor Rick Warren and Russia in the news. I have no complaints about Pastor Rick. The conversations he hosted with Obama and McCain were excellent and he elicited more useful responses from the candidates than more news reporters have in the many debates we have seen over the past years. The length of the conversations also was more helpful than most settings in getting a feel for the candidate's styles as well as positions on issues. So Pastor Rick was clearly the winner in this event!
What was a shock to me last night and this Sunday morning is the expressed perceptions of the normally level-headed talking heads in the media that McCain was so superior to Obama in this event. Were they watching a different show, or am I the only one who felt that Obama was indeed engaging Pastor Rick in a conversation on a wide range of issues and clearly demonstrated a thoughtful and calm perspective and a comfort with discussing his faith? Many commentators saw this as tentative and halting, while I saw it as sincere and reassuring. This was not a debate and Obama did not treat it as one, thought McCain clearly did. My take on McCain is that he was in full campaign mode trying to make sound bites and not really engaging in a conversation that revealed anything new about his character or his faith. Even most of the anecdotes were the same I have heard over and over again. And what was that about "I have been saved and forgiven-and that goes for the whole world"? It did not even make sense, that comment about the world. And "$5 million" is the cutoff for "rich"?? McCain did comment that may come back to haunt him. Most mere mortals would consider that cutoff to be much lower, and Obama's $250,000 seems more reasonable.
I would agree that McCain's sharp "black and white" positions and decisive responses helps to solidify his Base, but some of those positions would more likely turn off lots of moderate and independent voters. Meanwhile, Obama's style and calm demeanor helps to broaden his appeal and at least "dedemonize" him among evangelicals even gain support from those who are not single issue evangelicals. The most balanced discussion on this today was on the This Week show on ABC, but the others were totally lopsided and shortsighted in my view. I predict that in the longer run, this event will be to Obama's advantage not McCain's.
