econtalk

Are we "all Georgians"?

First I have to reveal that I was in Lithuania briefly at the time in 1991 when it was occupied by Russian (then Soviet) tanks and have personal friends who participated in the human barrier preventing these tanks from advancing on the TV tower, a barrier that was crushed by these tanks when they were ordered to advance in all disregard for those innocent people standing in the way. I have often visited the memorials and graves of those Lithuanians killed in this act of aggression and others by Russia that took place in this period when Lithuania was struggling for independence, an independence that was fully realized in August 1991. Despite the fact that Lithuania has since stabilized and prospered and joined the EU in May 2004, as have Latvia and Estonia who also broke with Russia in those tense times, Russia has continued to probe and test and sometimes bully these countries with economic and strategic threats.

In fact, Estonia was the first country that was victim of a cyperwar attack in May 2007, so even being a full-fledged member of the EU is no guarantee of being free of such bullying. And a cyberwar from Russian territory was a prelude to the military attack in Georgia last week. Moreover, Russia used some maintenance excuses two years go to cut off oil supply to Lithuania's refinery in what seemed like retaliation for the fact that Polish instead of Russian investors won the contest to own the refinery. Acting like any bully, it smacked of retaliation. Fortunately, Lithuania had the foresight years ago to build an oil terminal on the Batic coast, so they have supplies anyway though at a higher price.

Despite my knee-jerk reaction to support Georgians in their defense against Russian attacks and that of militias from the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, I feel that the US has to be smart as well as bold in its response to this crisis. A good lesson from those Baltic confrontations of the early 90s is that a large and even more dangerous force of the Soviet Union at that time was no match for nonviolent pressures for human and democratic rights of these occupied, captive countries. It was truly a conquest of people-power over a ruthless military machine, and the same can be said of the Russians standing up to their own tanks in the August 1991 attempted putsch or coup d'etat.

So how to be smart in the current crisis? First of all is to recognize that this has been a festering wound for years, and there is enough blame to go around for that happened last week. There is no defense for the harshness of the Russian response or for their incursion into Georgia and destruction of Georgian infrastructure, so one cannot compare other sins of omission and commission to that one. Georgia was like a foolish child who lashed out at a bully without thinking of the consequences. It was an excuse Russia was waiting for (or trap they baited) to launch the invasion of Georgian space. The US and EU have not given enough attention to this open wound that needed careful negotiation to prevent just such an explosion. Now it is hard to turn back the clock.

McCain has been entirely too aggressive in his response to this crisis while Obama has been more thoughtful and more in line with what I would like to see in a President. Speak softly and carry a big stick, Ted Roosevelt used to say, but McCain speaks harshly and has a very small stick. You would think he is already the President the way he has talked, but the country can only have one President at a time. It may also be worrisome to lots of voters as it is to me that McCain is all too eager to go to war. He was such an enthusiast on invading Iraq even before the Bush administration,and attack seems to be his first reaction to threats. He just learned the wrong lessons from Vietnam.

Unlike some of his contemporaries like Chuck Hagel or younger colleagues like Jim West and John Kerry, who served on the ground in Vietnam, McCain never was able to see the reality on the ground that it was an unwinnable war. I too was on the ground in Vietnam for more than 3 years, though not in the military, and it was so clear to anyone with open eyes that a foreign military force cannot win over support of a population in a foreign country. McCain thinks it was the failure to maintain support of the US population, when in fact it is the failure to gain support of the Vietnamese population. Russia learned this in Afghanistan and we are learning it again in Iraq.

But I digress. The main point is the only way out of these messes is talking to the opposition and finding the pressure points that influence them. In the case of Russia, pressure points may relate to the cushy lifestyle of the rich and famous who like their vacations in the USA and their financial relations with US markets and businesses. Putin will not last forever and he may lose power and influence if his actions start to worry the rich and famous Russians. It is not to say it can be quick or easy, but raving and making empty threats will not work. Threats that actually can be delivered, like economic and business access, the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, etc are the kinds of pressure points to think about.


I am off to Lithuania in two days, so I may have more to add from there. They have a better and more informed perspective then we have here in the USA.

posted by econtalk @ 9:04 AM